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Alf and Bert play a game that each wins with probability ½. The winner then plays Charlie whose probability of winning is always θ. The three continue in turn, the winner of each game always playing the next game against the third player, until the tournament is won by the first player to win two successive games, Let pA, pB, pC be the probabilities that Alf, Bert, and Charlie, respectively, win the tournament. Show that pC = 2θ2/(2 − θ + θ2). Find pA and pB, and find the value of θ for which pA, pB, pC are all equal. (Games are independent.) If Alf wins the tournament, what is the probability that he also won the first game?
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DATE ANSWEREDSep 13, 2020
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